Menopause study finds a biological shift, but experts urge caution
· BehindLines newsroom
A study published on Monday, October 12 in Nature Medicine describes an abrupt change in the average trajectories of several biological markers around the final menstrual period. It draws on more than 300 million laboratory tests and over a million women in the United States and Israel between 1999 and 2024. The method reconstructs trajectories from population data; it does not predict when each woman's periods will end.
More than half the markers show a shift
The researchers combined two large datasets: the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and records from Clalit, Israel's main healthcare organisation. In the US data, 52 of the 90 tests examined showed a clear, statistically significant change around the final menstrual period. The shift extended beyond sex hormones to bones, the liver, kidneys, blood chemistry and blood fats. The authors describe a physiological “cliff” rather than a slope.
No comparable break appeared in men of the same age. The team interprets this as evidence that the jump is linked to the menopausal transition itself, rather than ageing alone. Another finding was that some hormonal signals begin declining more than a decade before periods stop, much earlier than previously thought.
Specialists call for caution
The cliff metaphor has not convinced everyone. Australian experts interviewed by public broadcaster ABC emphasise that this is an observational study: it describes associations across a population, without predicting what each woman will experience. Martha Hickey considers the image unnecessarily alarming and points out that women using hormone therapy may differ from other participants even before treatment. Ada Cheung, meanwhile, stresses the value of a health assessment around menopause. Uri Alon proposes earlier bone monitoring and a medical discussion of treatments; that proposal is not a consensus recommendation arising from the study.
Why it matters
Menopause affects half the population, and its effects on bone, heart and metabolic health are often underestimated. If the change is indeed concentrated around the final menstrual period, this stage could provide a useful window for medical follow-up, such as monitoring bone density or cholesterol. Above all, the authors see a framework for future research, which will need to confirm the findings in other populations.