IMF: Global growth at 3.1% in 2026, risks persist
· BehindLines newsroom
The world economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, according to the World Economic Outlook released on October 13 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The institution also projects global inflation of 4.7% in 2026, followed by 4.1% in 2027. These forecasts, based on information available up to October 1, portray an economy that has proved resilient but remains exposed to numerous shocks.
The committee's chair issues a warning
At a press briefing in Bangkok on October 17, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), welcomed that resilience while warning that conflicts, disruptions to maritime routes and difficulties in supplying energy and food continued to weigh on the economic outlook.
He also stressed that artificial intelligence could improve productivity while potentially widening economic disparities. In his view, these difficulties are particularly worrying for low-income countries and fragile states. He called for rebuilding fiscal buffers while protecting spending that supports growth and safeguards for the most vulnerable.
These remarks were reported by the IMF's official audiovisual service: they were made at a press briefing, and are not quotations attributed to a written committee statement.
The two-sided promise of artificial intelligence
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, speaking at the same briefing, also described optimism inspired by advances in AI and the strength of some economies, alongside concerns about debt, inflation and climate risks. She emphasised the need to reap AI's benefits while managing its risks, with safeguards to protect people, businesses and countries.
In its October report, the IMF highlights several downside risks: escalating conflicts, renewed trade tensions, fiscal vulnerabilities and a reassessment of expectations surrounding AI. Greater productivity gains remain possible, but are not guaranteed.
These figures are forecasts, not outcomes already achieved. The combined message of the report and the briefing is that growth is resilient today, but policymakers cannot assume this resilience will last indefinitely.