El Niño: connecting the climate signal to food risks
· BehindLines newsroom
The El Niño warning extends beyond Pacific temperatures. On 21 October, the World Meteorological Organization called for preparations for humanitarian action. On 22 October, an analysis published by the University of Oxford examined how climate risks could affect food systems.
A forecast does not describe every harvest
According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, waters in the tropical Pacific could warm to 3.8 °C above average between November 2026 and January 2027. The figure concerns the sea and a future period; it does not measure a temperature rise already observed everywhere in the world.
The organization distinguishes regional situations: more rain is possible in parts of East Africa, while drier conditions could affect southern Africa from November. It says these seasonal outlooks need to be complemented by national and regional forecasts.
Climate meets existing vulnerabilities
FEWS NET also places food risks in context. Its El Niño overview connects expected rainfall effects with previous shocks and supply difficulties. Concern is high in eastern and southern Africa, but the hazards differ: below-average rainfall in western, northern and central Ethiopia, flooding in the eastern Horn of Africa, and heat and rainfall deficits in the south. For West Africa, FEWS NET identifies no broad regional signal and focuses on local monitoring.
This framework presents projected risks, rather than a record of losses already observed. It does not allow any particular agricultural difficulty to be automatically attributed to El Niño.
An Oxford expert calls for preparation
In the commentary dated 22 October, Paul Behrens, a professor at the Oxford Martin School, argues that pressures on energy, fertilizers and transport can amplify a climate shock affecting food systems. He advocates preparing for combined disruptions rather than examining each risk separately.
His text is an expert analysis, rather than an announcement of a new shortage. WMO describes a climate hazard; FEWS NET and Behrens examine vulnerabilities and their possible consequences. Considering their work together shows how these organizations and this expert connect the climate hazard with vulnerabilities, without turning scenarios into established outcomes.