El Niño 2026: an exceptional episode, according to models
· BehindLines newsroom
The climate phenomenon El Niño, in place in the tropical Pacific since June, is developing very fast. According to the specialist publication Carbon Brief, it should reach its maximum around the end of the year, and climate scientist Zeke Hausfather finds this evolution staggering.
Records in the Pacific
El Niño is a natural mechanism: the ocean releases heat to the atmosphere, which temporarily lifts global temperatures. Carbon Brief tracks its intensity through the so-called "Niño3.4" anomaly, the gap between sea temperature and normal in an area of the central Pacific. On 18 September, this daily gap reached 3.11 °C, a satellite-era record. September also recorded the highest monthly average since the mid-19th century, at 2.84 °C.
What the forecasts say
Hausfather reviewed more than 600 forecasts from 14 models. According to this analysis, the anomaly would peak around 4 °C, over one degree higher than the earlier record, set in 2015-2016. Ten models out of 14 expect the peak in December, the others in November. Carbon Brief estimates that the effect on the planet's average temperature would be seen mainly in 2027, at about 1.74 °C above the pre-industrial era, with a 96% chance that it becomes the hottest year ever recorded. This is a projection by that outlet, based on the historical link between autumn El Niño conditions and the next year's temperature change, not an established fact.
In Kenya, pipes to clear
The BBC went to Nairobi, where crews are removing rubbish from rivers and pipes as the short rainy season approaches. A regional forecast from Igad, cited by the broadcaster, gave an 81% probability in September of a very strong El Niño between October and December. The heavy rains forecast have not yet arrived, the BBC notes, but experts remain concerned. Meteorologist Jemima Gacheru draws a parallel with 1997-1998, because Indian Ocean temperatures resemble those of that time; she mentions a positive dipole and expects enhanced rains in several parts of the country. Nairobi county's disaster chief, Bramwell Simiyu, says the drainage networks have been left untouched for many years, and puts the full upgrade of sewers and drainage at up to 192 million dollars.
Why it matters
According to Carbon Brief, this El Niño has already fuelled fires (Indonesia) and "super typhoons" in the western Pacific. Forecasters cited by the BBC warn it could rank among the strongest ever recorded, with extreme conditions in many parts of the world. The figures cited here come from Carbon Brief, Igad and the BBC.