South Korea: squid catches could fall to zero as early as 2043
· BehindLines newsroom
The Pacific flying squid (Todarodes pacificus), South Korea's most popular squid, could stop being caught in the country's waters altogether during the 2040s. That is the projection of a study published in October in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, which Mongabay detailed on 9 November. The team at Pukyong National University in Busan places this "zero-catch" stage between 2043 and 2048, depending on how greenhouse gas emissions evolve.
What the study shows
The researchers set fishing records covering 1993 to 2025 against sea temperature, current, wind and climate data for the Pacific. According to Mongabay, sea surface temperatures around the Korean Peninsula rose by 0.7 °C over a decade, more than twice the global average. The business daily The Herald Business, which presented the study as early as 13 October, specifies that the model gives 2043 if fossil fuel use continues, and about 2048 with sharp emissions cuts.
The mechanism put forward is marine heatwaves, meaning unusually warm water lasting at least five days in a row. According to the Herald, the average September surface temperature in key zones of the East Sea reached 24.4 °C during such episodes, beyond what the species tolerates, and suitable habitat is shifting north. The authors also note that catches of Japanese amberjack, a predator of warmer waters, rose while squid catches fell; they do not conclude that one causes the other.
A decline already visible, with nuances
Mongabay says current catches are about one-sixteenth of their 2002 level, according to the national statistics service; the Herald speaks of catches in the 2020s roughly 85% below the 1990s average. The Herald does point to a rebound in 2025, with 31,006 tonnes against 13,568 tonnes in 2024, which the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries attributes mainly to cooler waters.
Kim Kyung-hoi, the corresponding author, stresses that catch records are not a direct count of squid in the sea and that more research is needed. Jung Suk-geun of Jeju National University observes a drop in catches across Asia, first in Taiwan, then on the Pacific coast of Japan, in the Korea Strait and on South Korea's east coast. In his view the East Sea is the most vulnerable of East Asia's marginal seas: walleye pollock and sailfin sandfish, two cold-water species, have almost vanished from it.
What this changes, and for whom
For fishers on the east coast, Mongabay reports that some have already abandoned their facilities despite subsidies. For ecosystems, Kim Tae-won of Inha University, who was not involved in the study, warns of disrupted relationships between species and lower biodiversity. The experts quoted believe the squid is moving north rather than going biologically extinct.
The Herald stresses that 2024 was a record low for squid output, so the 2025 rebound alone does not signal a lasting recovery.