Taurids offer nights to watch, with no promise of a deluge
· BehindLines newsroom
The Taurids (Taurides) offer skywatchers a quiet November encounter. NASA forecasts a peak around November 12 for the shower’s northern branch, with about five meteors per hour under ideal conditions. The Philippine agency PAGASA also selects the 12th in its calendar. That figure describes a favourable forecast, rather than what everyone will see from their garden.
Read calendars with their limitations
However, the American Meteor Society’s weekly outlook for November 7 to 13 lists November 9 as the peak date for the Northern Taurids. The three documents therefore do not give exactly the same reference point. That difference does not justify announcing a universal hour when the sky will suddenly spring into action.
PAGASA describes activity extending from October 20 to December 10. A peak date should be understood within that period, rather than as the only night when a meteor might appear. The shower takes its name from the constellation Taurus (Taureau), from which the trails seem to originate.
Darkness matters more than a promise
For the current week, the American Meteor Society highlights the new moon on November 9 and limited interference from moonlight during morning hours. The society says results also depend on weather, urban lighting and the observer’s experience. The rates in its outlook are estimates for dark locations.
NASA recommends allowing about half an hour for eyes to adapt and keeping a broad view of the sky. Particularly bright meteors are possible, but their passage cannot be promised to any particular visitor.
The appeal of these nights is therefore an opportunity to observe, involving patience and variable results. Neither a calendar nor a theoretical hourly rate guarantees a continuous spectacle.