WMO: 2026 set to be one of the four warmest years
· BehindLines newsroom
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published its 2026 climate update on 9 November, the first day of COP31 in Antalya. Its finding: the year will be one of the four warmest ever recorded. At this stage, the organization does not rank it first.
What the measurements show
From January to September, the average near-surface temperature of the globe was about 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 average, with an uncertainty of 0.13 °C. The value rests on nine international datasets. It is close to the 2025 figure (1.43 °C) and the 2023 one (1.46 °C), and below the 2024 record (1.55 °C). The years 2023 to 2026 therefore hold the top four places in the ranking.
This comparison calls for caution: nine months of 2026 are set against complete years. The WMO specifies that its data run to September and do not reflect the most recent effects of El Niño. The final report on 2026 is due in March 2027.
The role of El Niño
According to the organization, this event has been strengthening since August and should become the most intense ever observed by December. El Niño generally raises the annual global temperature by about 0.1 to 0.2 °C, with its largest effect in the year after it develops. The WMO therefore considers it likely that the final 2026 anomaly will exceed the January–September average, and says 2027 will bring no respite.
According to its Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, the phenomenon does not add heat to the planet: it releases heat the ocean has stored. The ocean absorbs about 90% of the excess heat, and 2026 is heading for a tenth consecutive year of record ocean warming. Sea level is also at its highest.
Two formulations not to be confused
According to the BBC, the independent US group Berkeley Earth says it is 95% confident that 2026 will beat the 2024 record. The more cautious WMO speaks of one of the four warmest years. The first announcement expresses a level of confidence about the final ranking; the second describes the state of the data at the end of September. Until the year is over, these are two distinct formulations, not necessarily contradictory, and neither replaces the official assessment expected in March.