October 2026 is the hottest October ever measured
· BehindLines newsroom
The European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announces that October 2026 was the hottest October ever recorded worldwide. Its monthly bulletin was released on November 6.
The month in numbers
According to Copernicus, the average surface air temperature reached 15.35 °C, or 0.90 °C above the 1991-2020 average. Compared with the pre-industrial era (1850-1900), the gap is 1.75 °C, and it is the third consecutive month above 1.5 °C. According to UPI, the previous October record dated from 2023.
Oceans outside the polar regions averaged 20.95 °C, the highest value for any October. In the Pacific, the Niño 3.4 zone reached 29.94 °C, with an anomaly of 3.21 °C: two all-time highs, above the peaks of the strong El Niño events of 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
Europe and ice
In Europe, the average land temperature was 11.51 °C, or 1.49 °C above normal, the second-warmest October after 2022. The bulletin describes contrasts: heavy rain and flooding in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Greece and Turkey, but dry conditions in western Iberia, eastern Germany, Poland and Italy. The flows of the Danube, the Vistula and the Rhine remained exceptionally low across much of central and eastern Europe.
Arctic sea ice was about 9% below average, ranking 13th lowest for October in 48 years of satellite observations, with a record low in the Kara Sea.
What it means for the year
Copernicus estimates, using a statistical model, that 2026 will "virtually certainly" exceed 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level, within a range of 1.56 to 1.61 °C. It would be the second calendar year above that threshold, after 2024. The service gives 2026 about a 20% chance of tying or beating 2024, the hottest year, and considers second place more likely.
Samantha Burgess, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), explains that an exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities. According to AFP, relayed by Phys.org, forecasters expect a peak later in the year, and 2027 could become the hottest year. UPI points out that a single month above 1.5 °C does not mean the Paris Agreement target has been exceeded, as it is measured over several decades.