Iran and the US: Diplomacy Under Threat Ahead of the American Midterms
· BehindLines newsroom
Two days before the US midterm elections, Tehran and Washington are moving on two tracks at once: contacts through intermediaries and increasingly blunt military warnings. The war, which began on 28 February with US-Israeli strikes, still hinges on the Strait of Hormuz.
Indirect talks
According to Al Jazeera, two days of Qatari-mediated discussions took place, on Friday in Tehran and on Saturday in Qatar. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: "We are prepared for all scenarios." Euronews adds that Iran does not plan to meet American officials directly. France 24, citing the Wall Street Journal, reports that US Vice President JD Vance wrote to Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, at Donald Trump's direction. The Wall Street Journal revealed the letter on Wednesday 28 October; according to Euronews, Rezaei called it a "very good sign."
Hormuz: from seven days to two
Tehran had offered to partly reopen the strait after seven days; Araghchi now speaks of two days. Negar Mortazavi of the Center for International Policy, quoted by Al Jazeera, says the deadlock is about sequencing: each side wants the other to move first. Rezaei demands, among other things, an end to the US naval blockade, oil sanctions waivers, the unfreezing of Iranian assets and recognition of an Iran-Oman arrangement. France 24 notes that about one-fifth of the world's oil consumption normally passes through the strait.
Threats on both sides
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met top military commanders on Saturday and demanded a "geographically unrestricted" response to any threat, according to France 24 and Euronews. Revolutionary Guards commander Ahmad Vahidi told him weapons production had risen seven-fold, Euronews reports. On the American side, Marco Rubio says, according to France 24, that Donald Trump "hasn't made a decision" on new strikes; Al Jazeera reports that Trump himself suggested an attack could come after the 3 November vote. According to France 24, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks of a "historic," one-time opportunity to topple the Iranian government.
An economy under strain
Al Jazeera reports that at least four tankers were reportedly hit on Friday and Saturday, and the UKMTO says an LPG carrier was struck by three projectiles about 74 km south of Lavan Island. A US Treasury report, made public by Axios, says no new oil has been loaded at Iranian terminals since 25 August and that inflation neared 90 percent in September. None of the sources says whether a deal is close.