Great Britain: September sales fall as the quarter gains
· BehindLines newsroom
Retail sales in Great Britain fell in September without erasing their increase over the third quarter as a whole. The bulletin released on 23 October by the Office for National Statistics estimates a 0.4% monthly decline in volumes; August had recorded growth of 0.7%. These figures describe quantities bought, adjusted for seasonal variations, rather than changes in prices alone.
The quarterly comparison offers another perspective. Between July and September, volumes were 0.7% higher than between April and June. A decline in the final month can therefore coexist with growth over the quarter: the two calculations compare different periods. September also remained 0.8% above September 2025, according to the ONS.
Earlier estimates have changed too. August's growth was initially put at 0.5%; it has now been raised to 0.7%. July's decline has been revised from 0.5% to 0.4%. Reading the new bulletin therefore requires keeping these revisions together, rather than combining figures drawn from different versions.
Reuters, in its 23 October report, says economists surveyed had expected a smaller monthly fall of 0.1%. That gap concerns a survey forecast, rather than an additional loss measured by the ONS. The agency also highlights declining supermarket sales after increases in July and August.
Warm weather features in the explanations gathered from retailers: online clothing sellers reported a less favourable reception for autumn and winter ranges. That attribution does not demonstrate that weather alone explains the entire national decline. Nor do all sectors move together: fuel sales volumes increased during the month.
The result therefore concerns September and covers Great Britain. It is neither a record of purchases on 25 October nor a certain forecast of future consumption or economic growth.