China's green-tech exports: about 450 Mt of CO2 avoided abroad in 2026
· BehindLines newsroom
Solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles sold abroad by China now weigh on the global climate balance. According to an analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), published on 29 October 2026 by Carbon Brief, exports in 2026 should cut emissions outside China by about 2%, some 450 million tonnes of CO2 a year, comparable to Brazil's annual fossil emissions.
A fast climb
The analysis says avoided emissions rose 26% year on year over the first three quarters of 2026, after a 36% increase in 2025. Over their working lives, the equipment exported in 2026 would avoid about 8,400 Mt of CO2, against 6,800 Mt for 2025 and 5,000 Mt for 2024. Exported wind and solar could generate about 800 TWh a year, the equivalent of around a hundred coal plants. Over the first nine months, sales grew 61% for electric cars and heavy vehicles, 45% for wind turbines, 39% for batteries, 22% for solar and 21% for electric two-wheelers.
Where the gains land
According to Carbon Brief, about 76% of the lifetime avoided emissions from 2026 equipment are in the global South, including 52% in South and South-East Asia, where power grids are carbon-heavy and sunshine is strong. The United States ranks second behind India, up 12%. Exports to Gulf countries hit by the regional war fell. The 2025 figures relayed by Reuters on 23 September 2026 (background, earlier source), based on an earlier analysis by the same author, give 374 Mt of CO2 avoided that year and 6,900 Mt over lifetimes, 31% more than in 2024 (Carbon Brief now uses 6,800 Mt), for clean-technology exports worth $194 billion according to Chinese customs data.
Caveats and possible friction
These numbers are models: they project future use of the equipment and do not measure an observed fall in emissions, which remain near 39 billion tonnes a year worldwide (2024 figure, Our World in Data, cited by Reuters). The author estimates that making the exported goods, about 170 Mt of CO2 in 2025, is offset within six months of use. He notes that China's domestic solar demand is slowing in 2026; if that continues, exports could outweigh home installations and sharpen trade tensions. The Associated Press, covering the same study on 29 October 2026, notes that independent experts found the figure consistent with the scale of exports but could not validate the data.