England’s winter is crucial for farm water reserves
· BehindLines newsroom
Recent rain in England has not been enough to end the drought. In its update of 2 November, the Environment Agency says that 82% of the country remains affected, despite a return to wetter conditions. Storms Austen and Boelo brought some relief without substantially changing the outlook. The agency estimates that rainfall of at least 120% of the average would be needed over six months for the country to emerge from drought by spring.
An agricultural report published on the same day explains what this winter could mean for irrigation in 2027. It distinguishes the replenishment of storage reservoirs from an overall return to conditions outside drought. The report compares three rainfall scenarios between November and March: 100%, 80% and 60% of the long-term average. With average rainfall, prospects for replenishing reservoirs would generally be good. However, they would remain only moderate in the West Midlands, Devon, Cornwall and East Anglia.
With rainfall at 80% of the average, those regions would move into the poor category; at 60%, difficulties would affect much of the country. The issue extends beyond the amount of rain that falls: rivers and groundwater that remain low can limit permitted water abstraction. The report also points out that soils need to be sufficiently wet for rainfall to recharge groundwater supplies.
This uncertainty is already influencing farming decisions, according to the National Farmers’ Union. In a note dated 30 October, its deputy president, Paul Tompkins, explains that some growers are reconsidering what to plant because future water supplies remain uncertain. The NFU recommends checking irrigation equipment and adjusting water applications to crops’ needs, using soil moisture measurements among other tools.
These scenarios do not, however, predict how much rain will fall or announce a general ban on irrigation. Any restrictions will depend on recharge and local conditions; a further agricultural assessment is planned for February 2027. The national picture also contains regional differences: the north-west has entered recovery. When preparing for the next growing season, an improvement in one region therefore offers no guarantee that every farm will rebuild its water reserves.