Facts
China has increased military exercises and patrols in disputed areas of the South China Sea, often involving foreign vessels.
Reading between the lines
Beijing is not necessarily seeking direct confrontation. The strategy is to normalize a sustained presence and gradually reshape maritime control standards.
What it changes
The status quo shifts slowly without an official break.
Indicator to watch
Monthly number of reported naval interceptions or incidents.
Main risk
A miscalculation between military vessels leading to escalation.